Disney EchoEar Grand Mouseter
Joined: April 1992
||Posted: Aug. 25, 2012, 1:15 pm
Isaac's track models are still spread out, but seem to have it heading to northwest Florida panhandle near Pensacola or east (sometimes west of there such as to Alabama's or Mississippi's Gulf Coasts).
One thing to understand about "cones of probability" when you look at TV weather or online sites like Weather Underground, National Hurricane Center, AccuWeather : That "cone" is simply a collection of where the eye of the storm could go, and it's a wide range, and the center line is the average of all tracks. But the storm can have winds and rains miles and miles all around the eye and miles to either side of that "cone".
Meaning that even though Isaac's path will be over Gulf of Mexico waters for now, and it's "cone" is mostly over water for awhile and doesn't touch land much 'til later, Isaac's weather effects will be felt over Central Florida as it moves to the northern part of the panhandle.
So in Central Florida Orange and Osceola Counties, among others, are in a Tropical Storm Watch, meaning from Saturday August 25-Monday August 27 (48 hours) they can expect tropical storm conditions. Lots of rain since if you are on the eastern side of a tropical system there is lots of rain, and tropical storm force winds of 39-73 MPH. These two counties are where Walt Disney World is (it overlaps two counties).
At least for this weekend and early next week, travelers simply wanting to visit Mickey Mouse, Shamu the whale, Harry Potter Land, the Holy Land Experience, and Wet 'n' Wild and other Central FL attractions and parks will be blown and rained on.
If Isaac stays as projected, it will be a Category Two hurricane, so that also will affect how windy-squally-rainy it gets in Central FL as it passes by. And if the storm track moves east towards FL then Central FL will get more weather, if the storm moves more west then that means less wind-rain for Central FL.
It's going to be determined by the parks if they stay open or not or what attractions that are more outdoorsy vs. indoorsy stay open. I suspect it'll be business as usual, since the parks are more on the interior western half of Central FL and farther away from the eye. At worst, rainy and very breezy into low-level windy conditions in the parks, it'll be less than ideal..... But remember if it keeps crowds away and the rides are open.... SHORT LINES! And not as hot and sweaty! Silver linings can be found among hurricane clouds and tropical weather warnings!
The Orlando Sentinel and the Orlando TV affiliates all have websites, check those for up-to-date local conditions if this week was a Central FL/WDW vacation week for you.
We still have all of September and spilling into October as peak months of annual hurricane season, folks, so don't let down guard or be cavalier about awareness. Still "know before you go" what to expect of any and all travel industry providers, including airlines and Disney, about if you had to cancel, postpone, or end your trip in the middle of it due to ever-changing tropical weather conditions, storm tracks, warnings.