Group: Super ModEARator
Joined: April 1992
||Posted: June 11, 2005, 9:50 am
Arlene is close to having hurricane force winds and then becoming Hurricane Arlene
This display shows the probability in percentage of where Arlene will make landfall. The color bands are 10%, 20%, 50% and 100%.
The information given at 7 am CDT Sat Jun 11 2005 by the National Hurricane Center shows that Arlene continues toward the northern gulf coast as a strong Tropical Storm but they continue to say there is still potential for Arlene to become a hurricane before landfall.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the north central gulf coast from Pascagoula, Mississippi eastward to Destin, Florida. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect from the mouth of the Pearl River eastward to west of Pascagoula, Mississippi...and also from east of Destin, Florida eastward to Indian Pass, Florida. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern gulf coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River.....including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain...and also from Indian Pass, Florida eastward to Steinhatchee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 7 am CDT the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was near latitude 29.0 north... longitude 87.2 west. Arlene is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph...with higher gusts. There is still potential for Arlene to become a hurricane before landfall. If winds increase a few more miles per hour, to 74 miles per hour, then Arlene will become a hurricane, although it would be a minor one at category 1.
Category 1 hurricanes can have a storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. There is no real damage to well-constructed buildings, but there would be damage to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees as well as some damage to poorly constructed signs. Category 1 hurricanes also bring some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricanes Allison of 1995 and Danny of 1997 were Category One hurricanes at peak intensity. If Tropical Storm Allison builds in intensity just a few more miles per hour it would become a minor Category One hurricane.
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This display shows experimental probabilities of surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 39 mph (Tropical Storm force), 58 mph, or 74 mph (Hurricane force).
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Water levels are currently about one foot above normal tide levels along the northern gulf coast.
Arlene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches along and to the east of the forecast track across the Florida panhandle...the southeast...the Tennessee valley...and into the lower to middle Ohio Valley. Isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches are possible along the eastern gulf coast.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southern Alabama...southwestern Georgia...the Florida panhandle...and northwestern Florida today.
The 7 am CDT position...29.0 N... 87.2 W... about 115 miles east of the mouth of the Mississippi river and about 105 miles south-southeast of Mobile, Alabama. Movement is towards the north northwest near 15 mph. This motion should bring the center of arlene to the northern gulf coast later today. Maximum sustained winds are 70 mph. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...mainly to the north and east of the center.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 10 am CDT.
Disney Echo modEARator / administratEAR
“Dreams Do Come True Down In New Orleans.”
– Disney's "The Princess and the Frog"