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Topic: HURRICANE CENTRAL: Storms and your Disney trip, Will Hurricanes/Storms Affect Your Trip?< Next Oldest | Next Newest >
RichKoster Offline
Rich Koster




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Posted: Aug. 25, 2006, 5:11 pm Quote



Updated August 27, 2006:

It is now Hurricane Ernesto. Further updates are below in other replies.



What had been Tropical Depression 5 is now Tropical Storm Ernesto, currently in the Caribbean and projected to head into the Gulf of Mexico.

It is expected to become Hurricane Ernesto by Monday afternoon.

Tracking map from the National Hurricane Center

Computer-forecasted future track

:hurricane:


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CarolKoster Offline
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Posted: Aug. 25, 2006, 5:34 pm Quote

If Ernesto enters the Gulf of Mexico and starts heading towards New Orleans:

RichKoster, the Site Admin, and his family live in the N.O. area.  However, the physical location of the computer that operates Disney Echo is in a town in New Hampshire just north of the Massachusetts state line.

Disney Echo will continue to operate with no interruption.

However, matters of Disney Echo business and helping members and posting updated Disney news may have to pass to the skilled and kindly Moderators we have on Disney Echo if weather and news coverage conditions in the New Orleans area warrant.  Rich works full time at one of the TV stations in New Orleans.  If we need to evacuate, and he needs to work extended hours, we'll make sure the Moderators are aware of the situation, kept informed.

We evacuated for Katrina, will do so again if need be, so don't worry for us (meaning our family).  Prayers are always appreciated, however, and are powerful.  Everyone down here is so brain fried after Katrina, we really do not need what progress the region has been able to make set back by another storm.  In terms of property progress, but also in terms of the human toll on the mind and spirit, we could use respite from storms.  I'm sure the same is true of the state of Florida where in 2004 Charley, Jeanne, Frances and Ivan went ashore.

The time to be concerned about Disney Echo itself is if terrible weather occurs in the Northeast U.S.

As long as Internet connections stay up, and hard drives stay operating, and the site owner Larry Gensch keeps the computer in top working order, you should feel confident Disney Echo will stay operating, even if Rich and his family have to work a lot or evacuate or do what we have to do.

We encourage everyone, and new members, to familiarize yourselves with Disney Echo's features and Terms and Conditions of Use, via "Help" and the "How Do You Do It Forum".  Read all Sticky messages in Forum Indexes, those do contain Terms of Use.  Means "the rules for how we operate and where and how to post and the behaviour that is expected of members".  Longer term members, please help newcomers get familiar with the "culture" here, and point them to already existing files and information such as in "Help" and "How Do You Do It Forum" and the Stickys in each  Forum Index.  Save yourself typing, point to existing info.  "Search" for existing Topics if people have Disney questions.  If a Moderator suggests this or that in your general direction, please understand the circumstances.

Let's prepare for the worst, but hope for the best!
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RichKoster Offline
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Posted: Aug. 26, 2006, 5:38 pm Quote

One of our meteorologists at FOX 8 in New Orleans where I work just told me his latest indicators have him thinking what will be Hurricane Ernesto will make landfall this Thursday or Friday -- possibly as strong as a category 3 hurricane -- not threatening New Orleans but instead hitting the Florida panhandle or further east -- perhaps anywhere along that part of the gulf coast from Mobile, Alabama through the Tallahassee, Florida area.

It still is very early to have a better idea of what might happen with the storm, but I wanted to warn all EchoEars to be very watchful the next few days in case Ernesto affects you where you live or any upcoming Disney travel plans. Even if it does make landfall in the Florida panhandle, areas in central Florida could very well be impacted by such a strong hurricane, experiencing intense rain and strong winds -- and this could happen even at Walt Disney World -- because in that scenario that part of Florida would be on the "worst" side of the storm.
:hurricane:


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CarolKoster Offline
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Posted: Aug. 26, 2006, 10:40 pm Quote

A special second collection might be taken up either this weekend or on Labor Day weekend for Gulf Coast hurricane relief in CAtholic parishes around the US.  The US Conference of CAtholic Bishops website about teh fundraising said August 26-27, our church this evening announced it would be next weekend.  So go to the USCCB website and take a look, if you miss the collection there is an address there to send a donation to.

We have Disney Echo members in the area where Ernesto is projected to go.  EVen though they may be taking a break for a long time from posting here, RichKoster the Site Administrator does not delete them as members of this site.  So they are still considered members of this site.  At least one lives just east of Mobile, Alabama, and another lives south of Tallahassee, Florida.

If you want to send Pixie Dust (secular, means "well wishing thoughts, support, encouragement a la Disney "pixie dust" ) and prayers (faith-based) then the thread for that is here for the 2006 hurricane season:

http://new.disneyecho.emuck.com/cgi-bin....t=11078

The folks in that part of Florida went through a battering in the 2004 hurricane season not just from Ivan (in September) but a series of tropical storms also went through that part.  The significant storms that hit Florida in August through September of 2004 were Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, and of those Charley, Frances and Jeanne did go across Central Florida in some way shape or form.  And in 2005 it was Wilma that visited Florida.

Those folks really could use a break!

Heck, we Katrina and Rita people could use a break too!

Compared to last year, it seems like the 2006 season is no big deal.  'Til now.  Those accustomed to this season each year know the peak months are August and September.  That there was no activity is actually normal.  Last year, with so many storms, that was a highly ABnormal year!

Statistically, the peak months start just a week or two into August, the peak of the peak is September 10, then it decreases significantly after that.  In so far as statistics of past events can be helpful to predict future activity, there it is.  Mother nature does what Mother Nature wants to do year after year, however.  As Barbossa the pirate says in "Pirates of the Carribbean" the hurricane past statistics are more like "guidelines, than actual rules" and believe me it can vary year to year.

As travellers to Disney:

Be aware their hurricane policy for handling ticket and other refunds is now posted on their website at Disney.go.com.  Choose WDW. and in left hand menu bars, in teeny print, if you search enough and squint enough you will see it.

If you have "soon" travel plans to Central Florida, familiarize yourself with Disney's hurricane policy.  I'm betting other Central Florida travel industry members (off-site hotels, the airport, airlines, airport shuttle services such as limo services and Mears and bus services, shows, dinner shows, condo rentals, competing theme parks and water parks, etc.) all have soemthign similar somewhere, or at least if you ask they will work with you on understanding what to do if a storm comes and you decide not to ride it out, but you decide to "bug out" and leave early.

Hurricane season is June 1 - November 30, but the peaks months, again, are the latter half of August through around October 1, with the peak of the peak at around September 10.  Mother Nature disregards calendars, so anything can happen.

Get an alternate Plan B in mind, if you travel to Disney this time of year, of what you would do, what arrangements you may have to cancel, do they offer rain checks or will they credit yoru account back or otherwise refund?  Will they shelter you?  How would you notify work, or your children's schools?  If you have special needs, require prescriptions, bring your health insurance and preferred provider info, and pharmacy info, and your doctor's contact information, just in case you may be in Orlando longer than expected due to weather conditions, the airport shut down, etc.  Reconfirm with transportation providers, that if you want to leave they will be able to come get you, or come get you earlier.

I mean really and truly:  Think these issues out.  In 2004 it happened with Charley, Frances and Jeanne!  Ask your travel agent and any travel industry providers (hotels, cruises, transportation, show tickets, park tickets, show and dining reservations, special event tickets, any special arrangements you had going like a destination wedding or a Grand Gathering) what their policies are.  Know before you go.  Just in case tropical weather systems do interfere with continuing with your vacation plans, know before you go.
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raysoflight Offline
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Posted: Aug. 27, 2006, 9:26 am Quote

How do you think the newest projected path will effect my trip?  My reservations are for Sept. 8th thru the 15th.  We will be getting into Florida on the 6th though, we're driving.  Also, during our reservations we will be staying at Fort Wilderness.

Should we cancel our plans?
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RichKoster Offline
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Posted: Aug. 27, 2006, 10:44 am Quote

Quote (raysoflight @ Aug. 27, 2006 08:26 am/pm)
How do you think the newest projected path will effect my trip?  My reservations are for Sept. 8th thru the 15th.  We will be getting into Florida on the 6th though, we're driving.  Also, during our reservations we will be staying at Fort Wilderness.

Should we cancel our plans?

It is hard to best advise you, but when you'll be getting to Florida on Sept. 6th, Ernesto should be long gone.

Keep up with the National Hurricane Center as well as what we're posting on the Disney Echo about Hurricane Ernesto, but I wouldn't change anything yet, Karen.


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RichKoster Offline
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Posted: Aug. 27, 2006, 10:49 am Quote



Will Hurricane Ernesto affect your Walt Disney World vacation?

It is still too early to tell exactly where Hurricane Ernesto will go, but all the latest computer models do agree that Walt Disney World as well as the entire peninsula of Florida will have very bad weather from the hurricane -- high winds, intense thunderstorms, heavy rain, etc.

Be sure to check the latest information from the National Hurricane Center about Hurricane Ernesto. They are the best source for the latest information about the storm, how intense it is, and where it is going.

Their latest advisory indicates that a tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

At 11 am EDT, the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 17.6 north, longitude 73.7 west -- about 115 miles southwest of Port au Prince, Haiti and about 205 miles south-southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba. Movement is northwest near 9 mph and maximum sustained winds are 75 mph.

The graphic on the right shows all the National Hurricane Center's computer guidance forecast maps overlayed onto one image.

Hurricane Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph and that general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass very near the southwestern tip of Haiti this afternoon or early evening ...and be near the southeastern coast of Cuba Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Ernesto is a category one hurricane now but strengthening is expected today and tonight -- it could become a category 2 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Cuba.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches -- with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches -- are expected over Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and parts of Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, possibly up to 8 inches in isolated areas, are expected across portions of Jamaica.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm EDT.




Click the above maps to see the forecast path much larger.

:hurricane:


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MKBaughan Offline
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Posted: Aug. 27, 2006, 11:17 am Quote

Quote
It still is very early to have a better idea of what might happen with the storm, but I wanted to warn all EchoEars to be very watchful the next few days in case Ernesto affects you where you live or any upcoming Disney travel plans. Even if it does make landfall in the Florida panhandle, areas in central Florida could very well be impacted by such a strong hurricane, experiencing intense rain and strong winds -- and this could happen even at Walt Disney World -- because in that scenario that part of Florida would be on the "worst" side of the storm.


Not only that, Rich, but the General Orlando Area is the main place to evacuate residents from other areas to when the hurricanes hit other areas...


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Grayson sleeping in Tim's Duffle bag.  He wanted to go to WDW with us.

 Miracle, the Wonder Cat!  She was in the position most of the time she was around me!  She is scary!

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RichKoster Offline
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Posted: Aug. 27, 2006, 11:58 am Quote

If anyone is worried at this point, remember that there are still many days until Ernesto will reach the U.S., especially the WDW area, if it ever does -- and things can change in the forecasted path over time.

In the meantime, if you'd like a stress-relieving laugh, check out this topic on the Disney Echo's "Disney Jokes, Satire & Spoofs" forum from 2004: EHCOT: Every Hurricane Comes Out Tired.

It includes the infamous Geraldo Rivera "bendy" bit! :hurricane:


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RichKoster
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raysoflight Offline
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Posted: Aug. 27, 2006, 12:11 pm Quote

Quote (MKBaughan @ Aug. 27, 2006 11:17 am/pm)
Quote
Not only that, Rich, but the General Orlando Area is the main place to evacuate residents from other areas to when the hurricanes hit other areas...

Really?  Oh dear.  See this is the kinda of thing I fear.  My trip is planned for 9/6-9/18.  Will Orlando and WDW be flooded with evacuees or will they be home by that time?  What about the roads going into FL?  We will be coming into FL on the 6th.  Will the roads be congested with people returning home?
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417 replies since June 10, 2005, 11:59 am < Next Oldest | Next Newest >

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