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Topic: HURRICANE CENTRAL: Storms and your Disney trip, Will Hurricanes/Storms Affect Your Trip?< Next Oldest | Next Newest >
RichKoster Offline
Rich Koster




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Posted: May 14, 2006, 5:06 pm Quote

Major hurricane season brewing in the Atlantic

Hurricanes and their aftermath could threaten Canada's East Coast this season


May. 8 2006

FREDERICTON, CANADA -- In what could signal a frightening new fact of life in the age of global warming, Canadian and U.S. forecasters are warning that another major hurricane season is brewing in the Atlantic Ocean.

The 2006 hurricane season officially opens on June 1, and already scientists are telling people living in eastern North America that numerous storms are predicted, with as many as five major hurricanes packing winds of 180 km/h or greater.

"It's kind of comparable to what we were looking at last year at this time," says Bob Robichaud, a meteorologist with the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Dartmouth, N.S.

"Last year we were looking at 12 to 15 storms and this year the forecast is for about 17. No one would go out on a limb and say it is going to be just as bad as last year, but the indications are there that it is still going to be another active season, almost twice as active as normal."

Last year's hurricane season was the most destructive on record.

There were 27 named storms, 15 hurricanes and seven intense hurricanes during the 2005 season. The worst damage was along the U.S. Gulf coast.

Scientists with the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team say the same factors that contributed to last year's violent season are still in play this year.

"The Atlantic Ocean remains anomalously warm, and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have continued to cool," says Colorado University forecaster Phil Klotzbach, explaining two of the key triggers for hurricanes.

The Eastern seaboard has been locked in an active storm period for the past decade and while these seasons are normally cyclical, no one knows when, or if, the active period will end.

"Is this global warming? From now on will we see only active hurricane seasons? That's the big question," says Canadian weather guru Dave Phillips of Environment Canada.

While there is no scientific proof that the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is breeding more hurricanes, Phillips says global warming could be contributing to the unusual power of the big storms, like last year's Katrina.

"We are seeing stronger hurricanes - almost a 100 per cent increase in category fours and fives," he says.

"When they do develop, they're a lot bigger, tougher and have more destructive power. They stay together longer. This is the concern. They seem to have more power. That could have a connection to global warming - the fact the atmosphere has changed and ocean temperatures have warmed."

Forecasters stress that there is no way to know, at this point, how many big storms will make landfall or whether any will be able to pick up enough steam to significantly affect Eastern Canada.

That's what happened in 2003, when hurricane Juan stoked up energy from unusually warm waters off northeastern North America and blasted the Maritimes, causing death and destruction in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and parts of New Brunswick.

Phillips says that despite this year's grim forecast, a lot can happen to shut down offshore hurricanes and prevent them from causing onshore harm.

"The temperature of the water has to be right, the winds have to be just perfect, the timing has to be just so and the depth of the water has to be just so," Phillips says.

"It's like baking a souffle. A lot of things have to come together and if someone slams the door, it won't rise."

Phillips adds that, curiously, what happens in the Pacific with the La Nina phenomenon can have major impact on the Atlantic hurricane season.

La Nina refers to a pattern of usually cold surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The east-to-west winds of La Nina tend to be more favourable for producing hurricanes in the Atlantic.

While La Nina has been the dominating factor in the Pacific for the past two years, it appears to be easing.

NASA oceanographers say they believe La Nina will not affect Atlantic hurricanes this year.

Whatever happens, people who have experienced the wrath of a major hurricane are taking precautions.

A 2005 Environment Canada survey of about 500 Halifax-area residents, obtained by The Canadian Press through Access to Information, found that a majority of respondents - 53 per cent - now feel vulnerable to hurricanes.

It also found that 71 per cent of respondents would do things differently if another hurricane like Juan is forecast for the area.

Nova Scotia resident Lynn Brooks, who lives near Halifax, was one of thousands of Maritimers who experienced property damage and power outages during Juan.

Brooks says she now keeps extra water in her home, because if the power goes out, her well goes off.

"I think I'm like a lot of people in this region," she says.

"We will never taken another hurricane warning for granted."

Read the full article here.


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RichKoster
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RichKoster Offline
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Posted: May 14, 2006, 5:13 pm Quote

Expert: 64 Percent Chance Of Major East Coast Storm Strike

47% chance of major hurricane striking the Gulf Coast


April 4, 2006

The chance of a major hurricane strike this year along the east coast of the United States is significantly higher than an average season, according to the nation's most prominent hurricane forecaster.

"(Dr. William Gray) is saying that the chance of a major hurricane strike along the East Coast is at 64 percent this year," Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry said. "An average season calls for only a 31 percent chance of a strike in this area. So, he has upped the chance of a major hurricane hitting the East Coast."

Gray also put out a prediction for the Gulf Coast for 2006.

"He said there is a chance of a major hurricane striking the Gulf Coast," Mowry said. "That percentage chance is at 47 percent."

Concerning the amount of hurricanes, Gray stuck with projections from his December 2005 forecast.

"He is calling for 17 tropical storms and in an average season we get 10," Mowry said. "He is calling for nine hurricanes and the average is six. And five major hurricanes is what he is calling for and the average is just over two."

Last year, the Atlantic Basin had a record 27 tropical storms -- so many that the National Hurricane Center had to turn to the Greek alphabet for names.

Read the article here.


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RichKoster
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RichKoster Offline
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Posted: May 14, 2006, 6:21 pm Quote

And I've just posted this in the Hong Kong Disneyland forum:



Click here to see it larger


This is Super Typhoon Chanchu, approaching the Hong Kong area -- home of Hong Kong Disneyland. It has maximum sustained winds of over 150 mph.

Here's the water vapor loop of it and a warning about it

For links to Hong Kong weather and numerous (traffic) cams, check out independentwx.com. It is still night in Hong Kong but in a few hours you'll be able to see Monday traffic jams -- perhaps even bigger than normal if people are trying to get away from this approaching super typhoon.

Hopefully people in the Hong Kong area are being warned about this big one. Weather computer forecast models have Super Typhoon Chanchu hitting Hong Kong.
:hurricane:


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mamaloya Offline
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Posted: May 14, 2006, 8:38 pm Quote

There they go again: "One of the worst-case scenarios is a hurricane hitting the Northeast."  They need to stop that.

Well, we are in the east now.  What does that mean?  We are in Fort Bragg, which is kinda inland, but we would get a lot of rain from it.  Our new house is at the top of a hill, so we probably wouldn't have to worry about flooding.

Oh, and a question for you Rich.  Which storm and when, hit Myrtle Beach, SC?  When we were there last weekend, we were on a hotel on the beach.  Across the street were 3 hotels in a row with the windows broken out and boards on the lower windows.  The fronts of them bore the familiar markings on the houses in NOLA, ya know the orange X O and numbers.  The hotel we were in was being renovated.  I wonder how our hotel (on the beach) was fine and the ones directly across the street were messed up so bad that they still were not fixed.  Just wondering if you knew something?


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mamaloya Offline
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Posted: May 14, 2006, 8:40 pm Quote

Oh, and on the global warming thing, why is winter lasting longer and seem colder?  It is mid May right now and we are so cold.  It is in the 50s at night here and 60s in the day.  How about there in NOLA?

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Sandra / mamaloya
6 disney kids, dd21, ds18, dd13, ds9, dd8, and dd6
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'77 First trip to WDW
'82, '85, '88, '89, '97, '98, 2000 off site
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RichKoster Offline
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Posted: May 14, 2006, 9:03 pm Quote

Quote (mamaloya @ May 14, 2006 19:38 am/pm)
Oh, and a question for you Rich.  Which storm and when, hit Myrtle Beach, SC?  When we were there last weekend, we were on a hotel on the beach.  Across the street were 3 hotels in a row with the windows broken out and boards on the lower windows.  The fronts of them bore the familiar markings on the houses in NOLA, ya know the orange X O and numbers.  The hotel we were in was being renovated.  I wonder how our hotel (on the beach) was fine and the ones directly across the street were messed up so bad that they still were not fixed.  Just wondering if you knew something?

That would have been Hurricane Charlie - August 14, 2004.

Not to be an alarmist or anything, but take it from me, it is always best to prepare for the worst -- and be thankful if it doesn't get that bad.
:nod:

I've seen much damage all around the New Orleans area, including the city itself, from Hurricane Katrina's winds (in addition to the flooding, but that's another matter, because most of that was due to the levees constructed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers having poor design and bad construction).

I could bring you to one location I'm thinking of now right on the edge of the French Quarter where a large part of a brick wall collapsed -- and right next door the houses were fine.

So it seems that sometimes hurricane winds perhaps can act like a tornado, with pockets of more intense, damaging winds.

Hurricanes can also spawn tornadoes, as well. And they can go just about anywhere.

About global warming, I'm also of the opinion (backed up by many scientists) that there simply is long-term swings in the weather and I'm not worried about anything like Al Gore is harping about with global warming. Notice that some reactionary environmentalists have started changing the buzz-phrase from "global warming" to "climate change"?

Yes, there is climate change -- but that has been going on around the world ever since the Earth was formed. Nothing new there -- and nothing to worry about because it does not actually change as quickly or dramatically as the alarmists would have us believe.

Also, as Rush Limbaugh points out, how come nobody ever mentions possible effects from the sun itself as to why sometimes it is warmer than other times on certain dates compared to other decades? Ever hear of sunspots and other unusual sun activity? If there are provable fluctuations in temperature, might very well be that they are occuring naturally and the sun itself has a lot to do with it, well beyond the control of mankind.

I don't worry about it, but trust in God, personally. :nod:

Quote
It is in the 50s at night here and 60s in the day.  How about there in NOLA?

Tonight in New Orleans it is a pleasant 78° after a high of 83°. Humidity 63% -- a bit low for us, probably would feel high for others in other parts of the country. Temperatures are expected to be about normal for us this week, a high of 78° tomorrow, then around 80° the rest of the week.


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Ilovdisney Offline
Cheryl




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Posted: May 14, 2006, 11:48 pm Quote

Quote (mamaloya @ May 14, 2006 20:38 am/pm)
There they go again: "One of the worst-case scenarios is a hurricane hitting the Northeast."  They need to stop that.

Well, we are in the east now.  What does that mean?  We are in Fort Bragg, which is kinda inland, but we would get a lot of rain from it.  Our new house is at the top of a hill, so we probably wouldn't have to worry about flooding.

Oh, and a question for you Rich.  Which storm and when, hit Myrtle Beach, SC?  When we were there last weekend, we were on a hotel on the beach.  Across the street were 3 hotels in a row with the windows broken out and boards on the lower windows.  The fronts of them bore the familiar markings on the houses in NOLA, ya know the orange X O and numbers.  The hotel we were in was being renovated.  I wonder how our hotel (on the beach) was fine and the ones directly across the street were messed up so bad that they still were not fixed.  Just wondering if you knew something?

OMG this is to funny Sandra I am in Fayetteville living in the Haymont area! Yes while we are 2 hours from the beach, Wilmington, Fay. still will feel the power of the hurrican if it tracks this way. I so remember Fran when we had no power for a few days and all the rest that have come our way. If this is your first time here, start getting an emergency kit together. I saw that NC was on that list and trust me there is a sign out there in the ocean that says Wilmington this way come on in. :)

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mamaloya Offline
Sandra Loya




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Posted: May 15, 2006, 9:00 am Quote

Cheryl,

Wow, you live like, right here.  I wonder if we have ever crossed paths.  As for hurricane preparedness, I know the drill seeing how I am from NOLA, just didn't know I needed to worry about it here.  Thanks for the info.  We lost all of our camping stuff in Katrina, which is what we rely on if the power goes out.  We bought a camper instead of replacing our tent and everything.  Guess I still should buy some of the basics again.  Our new home has no place to put our camper, so using its facilities are out.  Thanks for the heads up.  If it gets too bad, I will go home to NOLA for a few days.  LOL


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Sandra / mamaloya
6 disney kids, dd21, ds18, dd13, ds9, dd8, and dd6
1 Disney granddaughter 6/19/2008


'77 First trip to WDW
'82, '85, '88, '89, '97, '98, 2000 off site
2004 Ft. Wilderness in a tent
2006 Ft. Wilderness in new popup
2006 First trip for MVMCP at Ft. Wilderness
2008 Ft. Wilderness in new TT

2010 Ft. Wilderness in a tent again
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Posted: May 15, 2006, 12:44 pm Quote

Quote
I don't worry about it, but trust in God, personally.


Don't you think God put some trust in us to help Take care of the Earth we live on.  

Global Warming.  It may be real it may not.  you can find arguments from real scientists both ways.

But here's the big diffrence.

If The people who think it's real is wrong we still benifit from cleaning up the air and water and communitys.

If the disbelivers are wrong and it is global warming then Game over.  It's a lot harder to clean up damage that to not make the mess in the first place.

Now I'm not here wanting to go extreme tree hugger.  And we can't just run businesses out and put people out of work.  But just to sit back and deny pollution has no effect on God's Earth is not wise.


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Posted: May 15, 2006, 12:54 pm Quote

Sandra

I'm Sorry to say you moved from Hurricane area to another.

We get them on the Cost of NC all the time.  often they skirt the outer banks and then head back out to sea.  but they have been known to shoot right in.

If it hits just right we could get a Cat 1 or tropical storm as far in a Greensboro, NC

But the good news is that we are mainly above sea levels


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